Could Taxes Really Skyrocket If Trump’s Bill Fails?

As the Senate drags through another all-nighter packed with amendments and floor debates, President Trump is ringing the alarm bells in a way only he can. He’s warning that if lawmakers don’t pass his “One Big Beautiful Bill,” Americans could soon face what he calls the “largest tax increase in history,” a staggering 68% jump.
Trump’s fiery post on Truth Social early Tuesday wasn’t just campaign bluster. It was a shot across the bow at a Congress still wrestling with the mammoth 940-page bill, promising historic tax cuts, sweeping border security enhancements, and a $350 billion boost for deportations and national security. But with a razor-thin margin in the Senate, Trump’s Republican allies can’t afford to lose even a handful of votes, and the opposition is heating up.
“Republicans, the One Big Beautiful Bill, perhaps the greatest and most important of its kind in history, gives the largest Tax Cuts and Border Security ever, Jobs by the Millions, Military/Vets increases, and so much more. The failure to pass means a whopping 68% Tax increase, the largest in history!!!,” Trump posted.
As lawmakers hunch over coffee cups in the dead of night, the marathon “vote-a-rama” session drags on, with senators proposing amendments that could make or break the fragile coalition Trump needs. Senators Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Rand Paul of Kentucky have already signaled their opposition, forcing Senate Majority Leader John Thune to work overtime to keep the train on the tracks.
“We’re figuring out how to get to the end game,” Thune told reporters, acknowledging that a final vote might not come until dawn.
Tillis, notably, announced he would not seek reelection after Trump hinted at campaigning against him, making clear that the stakes aren’t just policy-related—they’re personal.
If passed, the bill would roll out $4.5 trillion in tax cuts while slashing green energy tax credits, a move Democrats warn could gut wind and solar investment. But for Trump, the package is about delivering on his promise to cut taxes, secure the border, and roll back programs he believes fuel dependency.
Yet, as the Senate scrambles, the billionaire Elon Musk, until recently a Trump ally and head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), is railing against the package, dubbing Republicans the “PORKY PIG PARTY” for what he sees as reckless spending and a $5 trillion debt hike.
“It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill… that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!” Musk blasted on X, hinting at the formation of a new “America Party” if the bill passes.
Trump didn’t let the shots go unanswered. “Elon Musk knew, long before he so strongly Endorsed me for President, that I was strongly against the EV Mandate… Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard look at this? BIG MONEY TO BE SAVED!!!” Trump fired back, threatening to sic his government efficiency squad on Musk’s empire.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office has confirmed the bill’s tax cut figures while acknowledging the bill includes $1.2 trillion in cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, with tightened eligibility rules. It also features a massive $350 billion injection for border security and deportation operations, part of Trump’s push to fulfill his campaign promises on immigration.
As the Capitol lights burn late into the night, the fate of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” will shape America’s economic landscape. Will Trump get his historic tax cuts, or will Americans wake up to what he claims will be the biggest tax hike in history if the deal fails?
The coming hours will reveal whether Trump’s gamble pays off or if a divided Senate stalls the plan, triggering a fiscal cliff that could hit Americans’ wallets hard. One thing’s clear: in a town addicted to spending and political posturing, this showdown is about to test who truly stands for taxpayers—and who’s just playing the game.